14.10.2015 - Demand for the yen has increased
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate around the previous close levels on expectations of today's publication of important statistics on retail sales and producer price index in the US (12:30 GMT). These measures will have a strong influence on market expectations on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. The weak inflation is the main reason for saving the current settings of monetary policy. Also today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on industrial production in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and inventories in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but in the nearest future the price may continue to grow.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a sharp decline yesterday after the publication of unexpectedly weak statistics on the consumer price index, which in September fell by 0.1%. Analysts do not forecast changes. Deflation in the country leads to the revision of the forecasts concerning the timing of rising interest rates the Bank of England. At the same time, additional stimulus measures from the Bank of England are also unlikely. According to our forecasts, the British pound to will fall further in the near future and the medium-term outlook also remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the increased demand for defensive assets, due to the deterioration of expectations regarding the Chinese economy. Thus, yesterday's statistics on the reduction of imports in China for about 20% is a negative signal and points to continued problems in the second largest economy in the world. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan can strengthen the measures to stimulate the economy of the country against the background of weak growth rates, leading to a decline of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar falls after the statistics on the trade balance of China that pointed to a reduction in imports in the country. We recall that the Chinese economy is a major consumer of Australian commodities. The recent rise in commodity prices was replaced by the fall in connection with the restoration of speculations about the fall of the growth rate of China's economy. Support for the Australian currency was the news on the growth of consumer confidence in Australia by 4.2% in October, against a decline of 5.6% in September. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but after the strong fall we can see a correction in prices.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar corrected downwards after the Australian dollar, which traditionally has a strong impact on the New Zealand currency. In addition, it is worth noting the downward pressure from weak statistics on China's trade surplus. Today, the mood of traders will be influenced by the news on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but today we can see an upward correction of price.