14.10.2016 - The US dollar corrected upwards

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed corrective gains yesterday on fixing positions before the weekend. It is worth noting that investors ignored the positive statistics on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, which reached its lowest level since 1973 - 246 thousand, which is 6 thousand better than the forecast. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the trade balance of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), retail sales (12:30 GMT), US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). In addition, we should pay attention to the speech of the Fed's chairman Janet Yellen (17:30 GMT). According to our estimates, price fall of the euro resumed after the recent correction on the background of the expected tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, as well as the negative consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on the background of the recent correction after the growth of the US currency. Overall, the consolidation of the British currency continues and quotations will soon resume fall under the pressure of negative expectations associated with the exit of the UK from the EU. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened yesterday against the backdrop of weak statistics on China's trade surplus, which increased demand for defensive assets like the yen. In addition, support for the Japanese currency was the weakening of the US dollar. According to our estimates, the yen's decline will continue in the near future and medium term against the background of the expected stimulus of the Bank of Japan at the beginning of next year and the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in December.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth due to several reasons. Thus, the US dollar corrected after the recent strengthening, and statistics on the growth of the producer price index of China by 0.1% in September, compared with a forecast decline of 0.4%, increased the investors' optimism about the prices for coal and steel. It is worth recalling that coal and iron ore are the key export commodities for Australia. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar is negative and we expect further reduction in prices.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed an increase after declining during the previous days. According to our estimates the growth potential is low and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of price in the near future. The pressure on the local currency also provides preservation of the probability of reducing interest rates of the RBNZ due to low inflation in the country, as well as lower prices for dairy products. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.

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