14.11.2014 - The dynamics of euro will depend on the GDP data on the euro area
The price of euro after yesterday's slight growth resumed falling today on expectations of publication of statistics on euro area GDP for the 3rd quarter (10:00 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to growth of GDP of the Eurozone's largest economy - Germany (07:00 GMT). The data on the US labor market, where the number of initial unemployment claims rose to 290 thousand, which is 8 thousand worse than the forecast resulted in increased volatility, but failed to affect the dynamics of trading. Today it is worth paying attention to the data on the consumer price index in the euro area (10:00 GMT), retail sales in the US (13:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:55 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect further fall of the euro on the following week.
The price of the British pound continued to decline amid speculation that the Bank of England’s interest rates will not be raised in the first half of 2015, and also due to lower forecasts for economic growth in the country in 2015 and 2016. Today the dynamics of trading probably will remain negative, but considering the end of the trading week, traders will be fixing position before the weekend. The course of trading may also be affected by the data on production in the construction sector of the country (09:30 GMT) and data from the US. We expect a further decline of the British pound in the coming weeks.
The price of the Japanese yen continued to decline against the US dollar before the publication of statistics on GDP growth on Monday, which may disappoint investors. It is worth noting that the quotes are also falling amid speculations about the postponement of raising the sales tax to 10% to a later time than originally planned. The increase in asset purchases to 80 trillion per year will continue to put pressure on the yen quotes for a long time. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data from the US and at the end of the session, we can see a correction on the background of fixing positions before the weekend. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The Australian dollar after 2 days of strong growth started to decline against the background of the statements of a representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia concerning the fundamental value of the Australian currency, which is below the current levels. It was also noted that the strength of the dollar, the decline in investment in the mining sector and the tightening of the budget will have a negative effect on economic growth in the country. Investors remain negative on the data on slower growth of industry in China by 0.3% in October to 7.7%. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar replaced the positive dynamics to negative and follows the Australian currency. The data on the slowing of industrial growth in China has also been negatively perceived by investors and the price drop probably will continue on this background. At the moment, we do not see the drivers for the growth of quotations of the New Zealand dollar and maintain our medium-term negative outlook.