14.12.2015 - Oil continues to rise

The price of gold decreases after rising on Friday. The dynamics of trading in the week was affected by the data on US retail sales, which rose by 0.2%, which has met the forecasts of analysts. It should be noted that consumer spending in the United States account for about 70% of GDP. At the same time, retail sales account for about 30% of consumer spending and its growth indicates positive trends in the country. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States, from which will depend the rhetoric of the Fed about further increase in interest rates next year. At the moment, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates is about 81%. We recall that on Wednesday will be published a decision on the monetary policy of the Fed, that according to our forecasts will strengthen the dollar and will be negatively displayed on the price of gold, which may drop to $ 1,000 per troy ounce. We expect a strong increase in volatility.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil futures continued to show a decline after an absence of decisions on oil production quotas in OPEC. Also negative for oil was the statement of the International Energy Agency, a slowdown in oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day, compared to growth of 1.8 million barrels a day this year. Another factor that puts pressure on oil prices is the expected increase in oil supplies from Iran, after the lifting of sanctions, which is expected in the coming months. The potential reduction of oil declined, but growth in the near future is possible only within the correction. A strong dollar will have a negative impact on the price of oil in the coming months. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for oil.

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