14.01.2014 - The market has not enough charge for further growth
Major European stock markets yesterday showed growth on the decision of the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision that has softened the size of requirements for liabilities of credit institutions. The purpose of this step was to prevent the decline in economy crediting. In addition, were taken measures to avoid double accounting of derivatives.
Among the important macro, published yesterday, we should mention the report on the U.S. federal budget. Thus, the surplus for December was 53.2 billion dollars. It is worth noting that in previous two months, the budget deficit totaled 174 billion dollars. Improvements were achieved due to growth of tax revenues by 5% and reducing costs.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated
that in the first half of 2014 the economies of the U.S., Japan, Britain
and eurozone should accelerate.
American broad index S&P500 could not overcome the resistance at 1844 and started to correct rapidly. In case of further reducing, quotes can reach the level of 1810, from which the price can be rolled back up and continue its growth. We expect that the index will continue to its movement inside the rising channel.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to consolidate around a strong level of
1.3660. From below the price movement is limited by 1.3625 support
line, from the top by resistance at 1.3710.
Today the course of trading will be affected by data on industrial production in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT), retail sales (13:30 GMT) and business inventories in the U.S. (15:00 GMT).
The British pound has fallen yesterday and reached the support at 1.6350. Currency price has moved beyond the rising channel. The completion of triangle formation is possible. The exit from triangle will be followed by a strong movement. Indicators of industrial and consumer inflation, as well as home price index (09:30 GMT) will influence today’s price movement.
Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. Now the price of USD/JPY is consolidating around the level of 103.35. Decline is limited by the support at 102.50 and growth by resistance at 103.90. Data on balance of payments have led to the growth of quotes of the pair. It disappointed analysts and showed 0.05 trillion deficit. yen at the forecast 0.02 trillion. yen.
As we expected, after reaching 0.9060 the Australian dollar began to
correct. The first goal for further decline is the level of 0.90. A
significant stimulus is needed to overcome the resistance at 0.9060.
The price of U.S. oil benchmark Light Sweet has managed to break through a strong support level 92.00 per barrel and fixed below. The next target at falling will be 90.00 dollars per barrel. Target level in case of upward correction will be 93,60. We maintain a long-term bearish outlook on oil due to the fact that increase in oil production in the United States is ahead of consumption growth. In addition, thanks to new technologies of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, companies continue to develop new oil fields.
The price of gold is near $ 1250 per troy ounce. The last wave of optimism was caused by weak data on the U.S. labor market, which may force the Fed not to rush to cut the program of quantitative easing. At the further growth, quotations may reach the resistance at 1265. The support is at 1242.