14.02.2014 - Markets rose on the negative data on the U.S. economy

Major U.S. stock indexes ended the trading session with confident growth. Yesterday was published the data on the number of unemployment claims, which showed the growth up to 339 thousand, against the forecast of 331 thousand. Retail sales decreased by 0.4% while analysts did not expect any change. Negative data on U.S. economy increases the possibility of postponing the reduction of the quantitative easing program.

The report of ECB indicated that inflation in the euro area for a long time will not reach the target of 2.0%. On this background the quotes of euro grew and now are consolidating below the level of 1.37. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on GDP growth and trade balance in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). In the U.S., will be released the statistics on the volume of industrial production (14:15 GMT) and consumer confidence (14:55 GMT).

On Monday, U.S. stock markets will be closed in connection with celebrating of the President's Day, and in Japan will be released a block of important statistics on the growth of GDP and industrial production.

The British pound has updated the previous high and is trying to consolidate above 1.6630. Today is not expected the release of important macroeconomic data in the UK. After a strong growth a probability of correction has increased.

USD/JPY continues a gradual decline amid a weakening dollar. Increased volatility of quotations of a pair is expected on Monday after the release of data on GDP growth and the volume of industrial production in the country.

The price of the Australian dollar rose on inflation data in China, where the producer price index fell by 1.6%, consumer inflation increased by 2.5%. Further movement of the pair will depend on the release of data on the index of leading indicators in Australia (Sunday 23:30 GMT).

The price of Light Sweet crude oil is consolidating around the level of 100 dollars per barrel. Investors cannot decide on further movement, despite the fact that on the one hand OPEC increased the forecast of oil consumption in the world, and in Libya and Iraq are experiencing problems with the supply of oil. On the other hand the growth of production in the U.S. is at a record level that continues to put pressure on the price of the contracts.

Despite our expectations, gold prices have broken through the psychological level of $ 1,300 per troy ounce. Growing interest in gold as a defensive asset is caused by negative data on the U.S. economy and plans of the Fed on further reduction of the quantitative easing program. The price will need to gain a foothold above the level of 1300 in order to continue its growth.

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