14.05.2014 - Markets are waiting easing from the ECB
of euro continued to fall and declined sharply on news on Bundesbank readiness
to support the easing of monetary policy by the ECB in June. In addition,
investors were disappointed by the drop in the business confidence in Germany
to 33.1, compared with an expected 41.3, and in the Eurozone to 55.2 against
63.5. Today, the course of trading may be affected by data on the consumer
price index in Germany (06:00 GMT) and in France (6:45 GMT), as well as data on
industrial production in the euro area in March (09:00 GMT). We keep medium and
long term neg
The price of the British pound fell amid falling euro, as well as in connection with fixation of positions before the release of data on the labor market (8:30 GMT) and the quarterly report of the Bank of England on inflation after the publication, of which will speak Mark Carney (09:30 GMT) . We do not exclude the possibility of a trend change of the British pound, but still keep positive long-term outlook for the pair.
The price of Japanese yen strengthened after the growth yesterday. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on the volume of orders for machinery equipment in Japan (06:00 GMT) and is expected the increase in volatility at night after the release of data on GDP growth in Q1 and tertiary services PMI in Japan in March (23:30 GMT), as well as consumer confidence in April (05:00 GMT). We expect continued growth of USD/JPY on the background of a soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the weak economic indicators in the country.
The price of the Australian dollar is trying to reach a strong resistance level at 0.9400. The price of a pair continues to be at high levels despite weak data on industry in China, which was published yesterday and presentation of the budget in Australia which shows a decrease in expenses and tax hikes in the country. Despite this, we expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will take measures to deal with low inflation and keep a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The increased volatility on the New Zealand dollar was caused by Financial Stability Report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the speech of its head Graeme Wheeler. In addition, data on retail sales showed growth in Q1 to 0.7% vs. expected 0.9%. The quotes of a pair are under the pressure of industry slowdown in China and possibility of new measures by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand because of the high exchange rate and price decline on export commodities. We expect a further fall in price of the pair in the medium term.