15.01.2015 - American consumers cut back purchases

The US stock market yesterday showed a negative trend after the publication of data on retail sales in the United States. Thus, the rate fell to 0.9% in December, the biggest decline in 6 years. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 0.2%. In the Beige Book, which was also published yesterday was noted the continuation of stable economic growth at the end of 2014, but at the same time, wage growth has been minimal. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on producer price index and the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the fall of the index in the near future.

European stocks fell yesterday after strong growth in previous days. News of the decision of the European Court on the legality of the asset repurchases by the European Central Bank has not been able to change investor sentiment. The negative have become news about the decline of worlds GDP growth forecast in 2015 by the World Bank to 3.0%, which is 0.4% less than the previous forecast. The forecast for growth in the euro area was reduced to 1.1%, compared to the previously expected 1.8%. Today, a negative for the market was a sharp drop in the euro after the unbinding of the Swiss franc to the euro. We predict a decrease in the European markets in the medium term despite the probable launch of quantitative easing after the ECB meeting on January 22.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed the strong growth. Since the resumption of the devaluation of the yen that was positively displayed on the value of Japanese exporters and growth in domestic orders for engineering products by 1.3% in November, against a fall of 6.4% in October, has strengthened investors’ optimism. The volume of lending in China in December totaled 697 billion, against the expected 885 billion. The Australian market was supported by the news on the reduction of unemployment in the country for 0.1% to 6.1%, the number of employees increased by 37.4 thousand against the forecast of 5.3 thousand. We expect the fall in the markets of the region in the medium term.

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