15.01.2016 - Falling oil prices have a negative impact on stocks

US stocks rose yesterday amid rising oil prices and the weakening of the pressure of concerns about the situation in China. Today, futures for major US indexes fall after oil prices which broke important level of $ 30 a barrel. The dynamics of trading in the US will affect the news on retail sales (13:30 GMT), the volume of industrial production (14:15 GMT) and the index of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). We expect a further fall in prices on the US market in the coming months.

USSPX500 Chart

European stocks are down today following the collapse in oil prices and the general negative sentiment in the market, raising concerns on the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the expansion of global GDP. Today was published data on construction in the United Kingdom, the volume of which in November fell by 0.5% against the expected growth of 0.5%. At the same time, the euro area's trade surplus totaled 22.7 billion euros against 21.1 billion forecast. According to our estimates, global deterioration in sentiment on the global markets will continue to put pressure in the near future, but in the medium term, we expect growth on the European markets.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region continued to decline today. The growth of the yen against the demand for defensive assets and the fall in the markets of China negatively displayed on the auctions in Tokyo. At the same time, the mood on the Chinese market was impacted by the news on lower oil prices and the volume of new lending in the country, which in December amounted 598 billion yuan against the forecast of 700 billion yuan. Australian assets are under pressure to lower prices for raw materials. Next week will be published data on the growth of China's GDP, which will lead to strong movements.

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