15.01.2016 - Traders are waiting for the retail sales data in the US

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell yesterday after a strong growth and the resumption of demand for the dollar due to the rise on the US stock markets as well as due to technical factors. It should be noted that the representative of the Federal Reserve, James Bullard said that lower oil prices will put pressure on inflation in the country. Today will be published a large block of important macroeconomic data among which are the trade balance of the euro area (10:00 GMT), US retail sales, manufacturing PMI in New York (13:30 GMT), the volume of industrial production in the US (14:15 GMT) and US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). We expect the decline in prices of euro in the medium term and in the near future.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized above 1.44 after the strong decline in the previous week. The main factors that put pressure on the British currency remain low inflation, worsening of other statistics and waiting for a referendum on the country's exit from the European Union. Today, we should pay attention to the volume of production in the construction sector (09:30 GMT) and the index of leading economic indicators. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate after strong recent strengthening, driven by increasing demand for defensive assets due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula but the main reason for increased interest in the yen was the decline in the Chinese stock market and the fall of the yuan. According to our estimates, investors' fears will diminish in the near future and we will see the resumption of the negative dynamics of the yen against the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar resumed decline after a correction due to continued decline in commodity prices, which are the main export group for the country. Concerns about slowing growth in China also negatively displayed on the demand for the Australian dollar. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the next few days and the medium term.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to fall following a stable Australian dollar and the decline in commodity prices due to the economic slowdown in China. Low inflation may lead to further monetary easing of the RBNZ. Negative trends in China will also continue to put pressure on investor sentiment. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

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