15.02.2016 - Data on retail sales in the US have led to the strengthening of the dollar

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro started to correct after strong growth in previous days against a background of positive statistics on retail sales in the US, which in January increased by 0.2%, which is 2 times better than analysts' forecasts. This indicator weakens investors' concerns about the US economy. At the same time the growth of the euro area's GDP, according to preliminary data totaled 0.3%, in line with expectations. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect data on the euro area trade balance (10:00 GMT) and speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi (14:00 GMT). Today, in the US is a holiday and activity will be reduced. The growth in demand for risky assets will also negatively affect the price of the euro. We maintain our medium-term pessimistic outlook for the euro.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell on Friday amid growth of US dollar and weak statistics on the volume of production in the construction sector, which grew by only 1.5%, against the forecast of 2.1%. Today, positive for the pound was the statistics on the index of housing prices in the UK by Rightmove, according to which in February, housing prices rose by 2.9%. It is worth noting that tomorrow will be published important statistics on inflation in the country. We forecast a drop in the British pound in the medium term and its growth potential is limited.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after on Friday was published positive data on retail sales in the United States. In addition, today was released a preliminary report on the growth of Japan's GDP in Q4, according to which the country's economy shrank by 0.4%, compared with growth of 0.3% in Q3. In addition, the volume of industrial production in Japan fell by 1.7% in December, which is 0.4% worse than the forecast. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative and we expect a further decline on the background of fixing of short positions and reduction of demand for risky assets.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise against the background of growth in demand for risky assets and the positive statistics from China, where the trade surplus in January totaled 63.3 billion US dollars, against the forecast of 60.6 billion US dollars. New car sales in Australia rose in January by 0.5%. It is worth noting that at the moment, the main driver for the growth of price is the increase prices of commodities. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows growth following the Australian dollar and against the background of positive statistics in China that is a key trading partner of the country. The price growth potential in the near future is limited and we expect the change of the local positive dynamics to the negative soon. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative due to the expectation of reducing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rates.

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