15.02.2016 - Gold prices fell on the background of growing interest in risky assets
The price of gold started to correct downwards against the background of rising oil prices and positive dynamics of the stock markets, which reduced the demand for defensive assets such as gold and increased appetite for risk. Bulls were cheered by data on the growth of retail sales in the US by 0.2% in January, which is 0.1% better than expected. This fact reinforces the confidence in the temporary nature of the slowdown in the US economy. At the same time, the purchases of gold fell in China after the end of the festive season in the country, during which gold sales in the country increased. Today, in the US is a holiday, and investors' activity will be reduced. We forecast a drop in gold prices in the medium term, but in the near future may see renewed growth.
The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil rose late last week amid short covering after sharp fall, and before the long weekend in the US. It is worth noting that on Friday was also published data on the number of active rigs in the United States, which for the week fell by 48 to 571. The main reason for the growth was the statement of the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates about a possible consensus on the reduction of the volume of oil production in the OPEC countries and other large oil producers. According to our estimates, the probability of such a consensus in the coming months is the minimum, but speculation regarding this issue will keep the volatility of prices at a high level. We expect the price to drop in the near future and in the medium term.