Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows a decline amid expectations of the Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy, which will be published tomorrow, but also due to correction after unreasonably strong growth last week. Support for the euro yesterday became strong data on industrial production in the euro area, the volume of which increased by 2.1% in January, which was 0.4% more than the forecast. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the employment level in the euro area in the 4th quarter (10:00 GMT), retail sales in the United States (12:30 GMT) and inventories of companies in the US (14:00 GMT). In the coming days the euro will show increased volatility and in the case of hawkish rhetoric at the Fed, we will see a strong decline of the euro. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to fall before the statements of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Previous growth of the pound against the background of short covering and the dollar weakening has come to an end and weak data from the UK and the risks associated with a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union, which will take place on 23 June returned to the spotlight of investors. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the labor market in the UK, which may lead to a strong price movement. We forecast a drop in prices in the coming months, but the situation may change closer to the referendum or thereafter.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today has shown increased volatility and significantly strengthened after was issued the statement by the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Thus, the interest rate remained at -0.10% and the amount of asset purchases at 80 trillion yen. If necessary, the parameters will be revised, but the Japanese regulator will monitor economic indicators and the Fed’s policy. Industrial production in Japan rose in January by 3.7%, in line with expectations. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows a decrease on the background of correction, as well as in connection with the publication of the Minutes of the previous meeting of the RBA in which it was noted that low inflation makes possible the further reduction of interest rates. In addition, the fall in oil prices was negatively displayed on the dynamics of the Australian currency in the near future. On Thursday will be published important statistics on the labor market in Australia, which in recent times has supported the growth of the national currency of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar declined amid falling Australian dollar, falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. Investors tomorrow will closely monitor the Fed's statement on monetary policy, as well as data on GDP growth for the 4th quarter in New Zealand. Tonight (21:45 GMT) will be published data on balance of payments of New Zealand that could lead to a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook is negative.