15.04.2015 - Statistics from China was negative
The price of euro showed steady growth yesterday on the background of positive statistics on industrial production in the euro area, which in February increased by 1.1%. The reason for the improved performance was weak euro, which supported the demand for goods produced in the euro area on the external markets. At the same time, retail sales in the US rose by 0.9%, which was 0.2% worse than analysts' forecasts and disappointed investors. The producer price index in the United States increased by 0.2%, indicating a stabilization of inflation in the country. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT). The central event of the day will be a press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound showed growth after reaching a level of 1.46. The reason for the increase of quotations became the weak data on inflation in the country, where the core consumer price index growth slowed to 1.0%, which is 0.2% worse than analysts' expectations. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar against the background of weak statistics on retail sales in the country supported the growth of the British currency. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the dynamics of the euro after the press conference of the ECB and the data on the index of leading economic indicators in the UK (13:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the British pound due to weak macro statistics in the UK, the strengthening of the US dollar and the euro's decline.
The price of Japanese yen reduced due to technical factors. The weakening of the US dollar caused by weak data on retail sales has led to the strengthening of the yen yesterday, but data on the slowing decline in industrial production to 3.1% in February, which is 0.2% better than expected, failed to change investor sentiment. Lack of demand for defensive assets as the yen negative impact on the Japanese currency quotes, but that could change in case of new speculation about the Greek debt crisis and the growth of geopolitical tensions. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but there is a decrease in the potential for a further fall.
The Australian dollar fell against the publication of statistics from China, which disappointed investors. Thus, GDP growth in the 1st quarter of the year slowed to its lowest level in 6 years - 7.0%, and industrial production in the country slowed growth in March to 5.6%, against the expected 6.9%. This fact puts pressure on commodity quotes and points to further decline in Australian exports to China, which is the main trading partner countries. Consumer confidence in Australia fell to -3.2% in April, that is 2.0% worse than analysts' expectations. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
New Zealand dollar price corrected upward and have not changed ascending movement despite the negative statistics from China and falling Australian dollar. The weakening of the US dollar on weak retail sales data in the US was the driver for the latest price increase. Tonight will be published statistics on the index of sentiment in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand (22:30 GMT). We forecast a fall in price in the near future, but to determine the direction of movement of the mid-term we need new signals.