15.04.2016 - Improving the statistics from China will support the US dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro slowed the fall after yesterday was published the data on the consumer price index in the euro area and the United States. Thus, in the Euro zone the figure was 0.0% per year against the expected decline by 0.1% and 0.1% in the United States compared to the expected 0.2%. This fact negatively affects the probability of the Fed raising interest rates during the next meeting of the American regulator. On the other hand it is worth noting the positive statistics from China, which has been published today, and which will increase the demand for defensive assets. On the dynamics of trading today will also affect news on the Eurozone’s trade balance (09:00 GMT) and the volume of industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound could not continue to fall after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at the previous level. The pressure on the country's economy has uncertainty associated with the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union that will take place in June. Today, little effect on the course of trading will have news on the volume of production in the construction sector of the UK (08:30 GMT). We expect the price drop in the coming months, but its consolidation is likely to continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after in China was published positive data on GDP growth by 6.7% in the first quarter, in line with expectations, and industrial production, which grew by 6.8% in February compared to the same month last year, against the forecast of 5.9%. Meanwhile, in Japan, industrial production fell by 5.2% in February, against the expected reduction of 6.2%. We forecast a drop in the yen in the medium term and in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after the recent correction has resumed growth due to positive statistics from China, which is a major importer of Australian products, as well as on the background of continuing growth in commodity prices. It is worth noting that on Sunday in the Qatari capital will be a meeting of representatives of a number of major oil producers that can greatly affect the commodities markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we can see a decrease in the beginning of next week.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the recent correction, renewed growth due to positive data from China, which traditionally has a strong impact on the dynamics of the New Zealand currency. On Monday will be published important statistics on consumer prices in New Zealand, which greatly affect investors' expectations regarding future changes in the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.