15.05.2015 - The price of euro stabilized
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stabilized around the level of 1.14 against the background of positive statistics on the labor market in the US, where the number of initial jobless claims fell to 264 thousand, against the expected 272 thousand. It should be noted that the improvement in the labor market brings point of increase in interest rates by the Fed. At the same time, the producer price index in the US fell by 0.2% in April, which is 0.3% worse than analysts' forecasts. Today, the in focus will be statistics on industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT), which may lead to the continuation of growth in the euro due to the likely deterioration of performance. We also pay attention to the consumer confidence index in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect further growth in the euro in the near future, but the medium-term view remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound also stabilized near the level of 1.58 due to the strengthening US dollar. Earlier, the support for the British currency was the statement by the head of the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney on a possible increase in interest rates before the end of the year in case of the relevant country's economic growth and inflation. Today, the dynamics of trading can be influenced by the news on production in the construction sector (8:30 GMT), which is a key one for the country's labor market and economy as a whole, as well as statistics on the index of leading economic indicators in the United Kingdom. We expect continued growth in the near future, but its capacity is limited.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen weakened against the background of fixing positions before the weekend, as well as due to lower demand for risky assets on the market. Negative for the currency was the statistics on consumer confidence, which fell to 41.5, that is 0.4 worse than analysts' expectations. At the same time the head of the Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda noted the growth of exports in the country and stated that the adjustment of monetary policy is possible to changes in the underlying inflation trend. At the same time the Bank of Japan noted the absence of the need to correct the country's monetary policy. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but see no reason for the strong price movement in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has shown a downward correction after the strong growth. The reason for the drop in prices became weak data from China, where foreign direct investment growth slowed in April to 10.4%, against 10.6% in March. At the same time, investors fixed positions before the weekend. A strong labor market statistics in the United States stimulate the sale of the Australian currency. Growth of Australian currency is supported by the increase in raw material prices, but we expect this change in the dynamics and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is corrected downward after strong increase this week. A number of investors estimated the recent growth as unreasonably strong. At the same time the strengthening of the US currency against the background of positive statistics on the labor market has resulted in accelerating price declines. In order to determine the future direction of the price we need additional signals.