15.05.2015 - We expect oil prices to fall

The price of gold rose yesterday due to weak data on producer price index, which fell in April by 0.4%, against expected growth of 0.1%. This fact reduces the likelihood of the of the Fed interest rateshike during the next meetings of the regulator and a positive effect on the gold price. Reducing the number of unemployment claims in the US to 264 thousand failed to neutralize the effect of weak inflation data. Demand for gold in Asia remains low, and the drop in demand for protective assets stimulates the sale of gold. The growth of interest in the metal is possible in case of a fall on the stock markets. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil was not able to continue the upward movement after reaching a local maximum near 62.70. Despite the slight decline in US oil inventories, excess supply on the market continues to grow due to the increase of oil production in other countries. Besides, many analysts believe the price above $ 60 a barrel is suitable for the extraction of shale oil. Today, the course of trading will affect the data on the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). The slowdown in the Chinese economy, as well as an excess of oil supply of about 2 million barrels per day is the reason for keeping the negative outlook on the oil.

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