15.06.2015 - Greece may default in the near future

US stock indexes has fallen on the last trading session of the week due to rising speculation about a possible default of Greece because of the lack of outcome of the negotiations in Greece and creditors. Positive statistics on the growth of the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan to 94.6, vs. expected 91.3, could not change the mood of investors. Today, the focus of investors will be on the statistics on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York (12:30 GMT), as well as industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT). Investors do not hurry with actions due to the expectation of the Fed statement on monetary policy on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but is likely the fall in the near future.

Major European stock indexes fell on Friday against the background of the termination of negotiations between Greece and the IMF in connection with the lack of progress. Industrial output in the euro area grew by only 0.1% in April, which is 0.3% worse than analysts' forecasts. Today was published data on the trade balance, the surplus of which grew strongly in April and totaled 24.3 billion euros, compared with an expected 20.3 billion. Strong influence on the course of trading today will have the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi (13:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive due to the improved macroeconomic data and positive effect of the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone, but the Greek crisis may lead to a drop on the markets.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell today against the background of investors' pessimism over the lack of results in the negotiations between Greece and creditors. Additionally, investors are waiting for the Fed statement. In case of a hint of the soon rise in interest rates by the Fed is expected the fall on the stock markets. Tomorrow in Australia will be published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and in China there are data on the volume of foreign direct investment. We expect the growth of stock markets in the region in the medium term, but this week will probably see a strong increase in volatility.

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