15.06.2015 - Growth of the probability of default of Greece supports the demand for gold
The price of gold shows the uncertain growth amid fears of investors about a possible Greek default. We recall that before the 19th of June the country should make the payment of about 1.6 billion euro on IMF loan. At the same time investors are waiting for the Fed's statement on the monetary policy, which, according to our forecasts will have hawkish rhetoric and will strengthen the dollar. In this regard, there is a risk of falling quotations of gold to an important level of $ 1,150 per troy ounce. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, but the is likely the strengthening of the US dollar, expectation of the Fed raising interest rates and weak demand in Asia continues to put pressure on quotations of the metal.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil declines despite the further reduction in the number of active oil wells in the United States. It is worth noting that the volume of oil production in the United States is about the maximum marks. OPEC continues to produce about 31 million barrels per day, despite saving of the quotas at 30 million barrels a day. Investors are waiting for the Fed's statement on the monetary policy and expect reaching an agreement on the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which will lead to an increase in the excess of oil on the market and will negatively affect the course of trading. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions on oil.