15.06.2015 - The volatility this week will grow strongly
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to be consolidated and the amplitude of price fluctuations is reduced, indicating a strong price movement in the near future. On Friday, investors were disappointed by the failure of the negotiations between Greece and creditors. The representatives of Greece refused from proposed pension reform. Minister of Internal Affairs said about the impossibility of payment of 1.6 billion euros till 19 June. On the other hand US investors were backed by data on consumer confidence growth, calculated by the University of Michigan, to 94.6 in June against the forecast of 91.3. Today, a strong influence on the course of trading will have the speech of Mario Draghi (13:00 GMT), as well as statistics on the trade balance of the euro area (09:00 GMT) and industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro and we expect strong growth in volatility this week in connection with the Greek crisis and the Fed meeting.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued its gradual growth and can maintain positive dynamics in the near future. Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Ian McCafferty said that soft monetary policy of the regulator will be gradually completed and the economy returns to normal. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on inflation in the country, that can change the standby periods of rising interest rates the Bank of England. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the price growth may continue today.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate near the previous close. Demand for the yen rose slightly against the background of increased investor interest in defensive assets against the background of the probability of default of Greece. Rising volatility is expected this week on Wednesday after the publication of statistics on the trade balance of Japan and the US Federal Reserve statement that according to our forecasts will have hawkish rhetoric and will lead to the strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the price of the Japanese yen may continue to grow in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows low volatility after the stabilization of quotations about the levels of 0,77-0,78. On the one hand the likely increase in the US dollar and lower commodity prices continue to put pressure on the quotes, but on the other side, the labor market situation improves. Tomorrow will be published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which may give hints of the timing of the next interest rate cuts. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 0.25% in order to stimulate demand and inflation in the country. Tomorrow evening will be published statistics on balance of payments in the country, and on Wednesday will be released a report on GDP growth of New Zealand, which can strengthen or partially neutralize the effects of the Fed's statement on the monetary policy. We expect a decrease in prices in the medium term.