15.08.2016 - Oil continued to rise, but it can change the dynamics

The price of gold today, showed a strong rise in volatility, but does not show a positive dynamics despite the publication of weak data on the growth of Japan's GDP in the second quarter. Thus, the third largest in the world economy showed zero growth, which was worse than the expected increase of 0.2%. The negative impact on the country's GDP had weak exports and personal spending in Japan. Today, the dynamics of trade can significantly affect the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York (12:30 GMT). Among the important events of this week we should note the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes that could change investors' expectations regarding further Fed plans to tighten monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise amid speculation regarding a possible consensus among OPEC countries on the freezing of oil production within the cartel. The informal meeting of representatives of the block is planned at an energy conference in Algeria, which will be held on September 26-28. We expect the absence of a real result of this meeting. It should be noted that the drilling activity in the US continued to grow and the number of active oil rigs increased for the seventh week in a row that together with the oversupply on the market and the imminent end of season of trips in the United States will lead to a drop in oil prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a soon resumption of the negative price dynamics.

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