15.08.2016 - Volatility today will be reduced
American stock indexes little changed on Friday. Thus, the rise in oil prices that is caused by speculation on a possible consensus on the freezing of oil production in the OPEC, supported indexes, which were under pressure from weak statistics on retail sales in July showed zero growth against the expected increase of 0.4%. Today, trading will continue to influence the dynamics on commodity markets and statistics on an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York (12:30 GMT). Investors will not hurry with active actions until tomorrow's publication of statistics on consumer price index, the growth of which increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year, which is negative for the stock indices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the beginning of reduction in the near future.
European stocks today show low volatility and are near previous closing levels. On Friday, was published data on GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter by 0.3% in line with expectations. Today, in France and Italy is the day off and is not expected the release of important statistics in the region. British investors are waiting for the publication of important news on inflation tomorrow, and on the labor market on Wednesday. At the moment, there is a high probability of resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future against the background of technical factors and the lack of drivers for continued movement. Additional pressure on the indices in the region have the consequences of the British referendum on membership in the EU. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, and the correction can begin in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed different dynamics. Thus, the rise in oil prices supported the optimism, but the statistics from Japan is negatively displayed on the markets. Thus, the GDP of Japan showed zero growth in the second quarter of this year, against the forecast of 0.2%. The reason for this deterioration has become weak export and personal consumer spending. Industrial production in Japan rose by 2.3% in June, which is 0.4% more than the forecast. Market dynamics in the region in the coming days will depend on external factors. We expect the beginning of a correction in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.