15.09.2014 - Gold fell to eight-month low

The price of gold continues to decline amid speculation about the future of the Fed meeting in the United States, where they can declare an earlier rate hike. In addition, a decrease in quotations of gold promotes improvement of macroeconomic indicators in the United States, where retail sales in August rose by 0.6%, which is 2 times better than expected, and the consumer confidence index rose to 84.6 in September, against the expected growth of up to 83, 2. Demand for the metal in Asia and among the investment funds remains weak, but the correction on stock markets of the world may raise interest in gold as a defensive asset. We expect a further fall in prices to the levels of 1220, and 1200 dollars per troy ounce, but we anticipate the resumption of growth in the medium term.

The price of oil fell sharply on weak data from China, which is the world's second largest consumer of oil. Thus industrial growth slowed to 6.9% in August, that is 2.1% less than in the previous month. It is worth recalling that oil production in OPEC countries decreased by 130 thousand barrels per day, up to the level of 30.3 million barrels per day. Forecasts of oil consumption is steadily declining. Ukrainian crisis may worsen the economic situation in Europe and further reduce the demand for oil. Today, on the dynamics of trading will affect the statistics on industrial production in the United States. The main event of the week will be the Fed meeting, which may affect the quotation of the dollar and oil, respectively. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook.

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