15.09.2014 - Markets are waiting for a referendum in Scotland
The price of euro rose slightly on the background of fixation positions after the strong decline of the euro in the previous trading session. Despite this traders expect the Fed decision on monetary policy, which will be published on Wednesday. In case of raising rates, the price of the euro will continue to decline rapidly. In the data released on Friday on consumer confidence, which rose to 84.6 that is 1.4 better than the forecast. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), as well as statistics on industrial production in the USA (13:15 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
The price of the British pound continues to ignore the macroeconomic statistics, and is consolidating in a narrow corridor 1,62-1,63. Investors are awaiting the results of a referendum on Scottish independence, which will be held on 18 September. In case of the decision of Scotland to exit from the United Kingdom the British pound price will start to decrease with the targets of 1.55 and 1.50. Today were published the positive news on an increase in housing prices in September by 0.9%, against a fall of 2.9% last month. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on inflation in the country. We recommend to wait for the results of the referendum in Scotland to decide whether to open a position.
Japanese Yen stopped reduction in connection with fixing positions on the dollar, as well as the low activity of traders, which is associated with the holiday in Japan. The divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is the main reason for the depreciation of the Japanese yen. At the same time, Japan's macroeconomic indicators are worse than in the United States. Tomorrow is expected to increase volatility in connection with the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Japanese currency.
The price of the Australian dollar has continued to fall on the negative statistics from China, which is a major importer of Australian goods. Thus, the industrial production of the world's second economy growth slowed in August to 6.9% compared with an expected 8.8%, investment in capital assets decreased to 16.5%, against 16.9% expected. Today it was reported that new car sales fell in August by 1.8%, against a decline of 1.5% in July. Increase in volatility is expected tomorrow after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Considering that the target level of 0.90 was reached, the potential of falling decreased, but we keep the medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its decline helped by a drop in the Australian dollar, as well as unexpectedly weak data on the industry and retail sales in China. Let us remind that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand refused to higher interest rates, which was due to the need for further support the economy of the country in conditions of low export prices. Particular attention this week should be paid to the balance of payments statistics of the country on Tuesday. We expect a further fall in prices in the near future.