15.09.2016 - Oil production in the US rose last week

The price of gold rose slightly after the recent decline against the background of fixing positions before the publication of important statistics on retail sales (12:30 GMT) and the consumer price index in the US, which will be published tomorrow. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates next week is low, which is positive for gold, but we are likely to hear statements that will increase the likelihood of monetary tightening in the US after the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The volatility in the coming weeks will be increased, but given the expectations of decline on the stock markets, the demand for defensive assets will be high. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to decline after yesterday published a controversial report on US oil inventories. On the one hand the country's reserves fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, against expected growth of 2.8 million, but the volume of production in the US rose to 8.493 million barrels, compared to 8.458 million barrels previously. Oil consumption in the US also fell by 0.2 million to 16.73 million barrels per day. Investors are waiting for the results of an energy conference in Algiers on 26-28 September, during which a number of major oil producers will try to agree on a coordinated actions to increase the price of oil. According to our estimates, the volatility will be high in the next two weeks, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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