15.09.2016 - The New Zealand dollar fell against the background of GDP data
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued consolidation in anticipation of today's publication of important statistics in the United States on retail sales (12:30 GMT). Also today, the dynamics will affect the news on the trade balance and the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), and the volume of industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT). The main event this week will be tomorrow's release of the report on consumer inflation in the US, which will greatly affect the analysts' predictions about the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. We recall that the Fed's statement will be published next week, which will lead to increased volatility on the market. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected after the recent decline against the backdrop of contradictory statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate was 4.9%, but the number of unemployed increased by 2.4 thousand against the forecast of 1.7 thousand. Today traders will be watching for the news on retail sales in the country (08:30 GMT), but the main event will be the decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy (11:00 GMT). In case of lowering the interest rate or hints on such a move in the future, we will see a fall in the price of the British currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and volatility in the near future will be increased.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen price strengthened amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to increased uncertainty on the market, which increases the interest to the yen as a safe asset. Investors are waiting for the important statistics from the US, which will be published today and tomorrow will have a strong influence on the decision of the Fed on monetary policy. It is worth noting the high probability of further speculation on further steps of the Bank of Japan the statement of which will be published on 21 September. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook due to the divergence in the monetary policy of the central banks of Japan and the United States. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar decline has stopped and now is consolidated in anticipation of the new signals. Today, in the country has been published statistics on the labor market, according to which the unemployment rate in August fell by 0.1% to 5.6%, but the number of employed decreased by 3.9 thousand against the expected growth of 15.2 thousand. Activity on the market is constrained by the expectation of important news from the US. We forecast a drop in price of the Australian dollar in the medium term against the background of the expected strengthening of the US dollar and the negative situation on the commodity markets.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar falls against the backdrop of the statistics on the growth of GDP by 0.9% in the second quarter against the forecast of 1.1%. In the first quarter of the country's economy also expanded by 0.9%. Compared with the same period last year, an increase was 3.5%. In addition, investors were disappointed by data on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector, which fell by 0.4 to 55.1 in August. Despite the strong macroeconomic indicators, we expect a decline in the New Zealand currency against the background of the trade deficit, a possible reduction in interest rates of the RBNZ and expected dollar strengthening. Volatility according to our estimates will be increased in the near future and the medium-term outlook remains negative.