15.09.2016 - Volatility fell before important events
American stocks slightly changed yesterday, under the influence of negative dynamics of oil prices and growing fears of investors about the possible victory of Donald Trump at presidential election in the US that will lead to a fall on the stock markets. In addition, investors are in no hurry to increase positions before the release of important data on US retail sales (12:30 GMT). Also today, we should pay attention to the US statistics on industrial production (13:15 GMT). The main event this week will be the publication of the consumer price index in the US tomorrow, which will greatly affect the investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. According to our forecasts, in the nearest future growth is possible only within the correction and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Major European stock markets are consolidated around the previous closing levels. The investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the release of vital statistics in the United States. Today in the UK was published data on retail sales, which fell by 0.2% in August against the forecast of decline by 0.4%, but the main event in the country will be the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy in the case of easing of which we will see growth on the markets in the region. In the euro zone today was published the data on the trade balance surplus which totaled 20.0 billion euros that is 2.1 billion worse than the forecast. The fall in oil prices has a negative impact on investor sentiment. We forecast a decline in the index in Europe in the medium and short term.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline due to the increasing uncertainty on the market. Chinese markets were closed because of a holiday. Negative impact on the course of trading in Japan has had a strengthening of the yen against the US dollar. In addition, the deterioration of the situation on commodity markets weighed on indices. In Australia, was published a controversial labor market statistics. Thus, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 5.6%, but the number of employed decreased by 3.9 thousand against the forecast of growth by 15.2 thousand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.