15.10.2014 - The fall on the markets stopped, but probably will resume soon

American indexes remained almost unchanged yesterday after a strong reduction of the previous days. Negative for the stock markets remain weak data for the euro area, Japan and China. Oil prices continue to decline rapidly due to the lowering of forecasts for growth in oil consumption to their lowest levels since the end of 2009. Optimism index in small business fell to 95.3 against 96.1 the previous value and remains at a high level. Today the course of trading will be affected by the retail sales data (12:30 GMT) and the publication of the Beige Book (18:00 GMT). We look forward to continuing the downward movement on the stock markets of the USA, but admit the possibility of a minor correction.

Major European stock indexes corrected yesterday, but growth has been minimal. The reason for the negative mood of traders are forecasts on the slowdown in global economic growth. The decline in industrial production in Germany, the largest economy in Europe, as well as the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis. The volume of industrial production in the euro area fell in August by 1.8%, which is 0.3 worse than expected. The index of business confidence of the Eurozone also disappointed investors, and was 4.1, versus 7.1 the expected. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data from the United States and by the speech of Mario Draghi (18:00 GMT). We expect a further decline in European stock markets, and see no reason to change the negative trend.

Indexes of the Asia-Pacific region corrected Following the American markets. The Japanese market has supported the strengthening of the yen stop, but industrial production in the country fell by 1.9% in August, which is 0.4% worse than the forecast. Inflation data in China allows greater stimulation of the economy. Thus, the consumer price index fell to 1.6% in September, against 2.0% in August, while the producer price index fell to -1.8%, compared with the previous value of -1.2%. The Australian market was supported by news on the growth of production of mining company Rio Tinto by 5%. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the stock markets in the region.

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