15.10.2015 - Oil according to our estimates will continue to fall

The price of gold continued to rise and reached the level of 1190 dollars per troy ounce against the publication of weak statistics on retail sales in the US, which grew by only 0.1%, compared with an expected increase of 0.2%. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% in the US economy and have a strong impact on GDP growth. It is worth noting that the weak data from China and the United States increases the demand for defensive assets and rises the probability of keeping interest rates of the Fed unchanged this year, which is positive for gold. The seasonal increase in demand for gold in Asia is an additional stimulus for growth. We anticipate continued growth of quotations of gold in the near future and look forward to the publication of statistics on consumer inflation in the US (12:30 GMT).

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to fall against the background of saving excess of oil supply on the market, despite the decline in oil production in the United States. It should be noted that on Tuesday the Iranian parliament approved the agreement on the country's nuclear program, which brings closer the lifting of sanctions against the country and will increase the volume of oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day against the current level of about 2.9 million barrels. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on oil and petroleum products in the US (14:30 GMT). Expectation of saving excess of oil supply on the market in 2016 will continue to have a negative impact on prices in the medium term.

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