15.10.2015 - US retail sales fell short of investors' expectations

US stock indexes showed a moderate decline due to the weak statistics on retail sales, which rose in September by only 0.1%, which was half the size of the forecast. At the same time, the Beige Book noted continued moderate growth in the US economy, with the exception of certain sectors. So, the main negative factor for industrial activity and tourism has become a strong dollar. Today is forecasted publication of important statistics on the number of initial unemployment claims, and the consumer price index (12:30 GMT), which will lead to an increase in speculation on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains positive and the likelihood of increasing indexes in the near future has risen.

September 4, 2015 USSPX Graph

European stocks fell yesterday amid another portion of weak statistics from China, which reinforces concerns about the prospects for future growth of the world economy. It is worth noting that the positive for the British investors has become statistics on the labor market in a country where the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2008 and amounted to 5.4%. At the same time growth of average wages was 3.0% in the last three months, which was 0.1% less than the forecast. Eurozone’s industrial production in August fell by 0.5%, against an expected decline of 0.4%. Today in Europe was not expected to release of important statistics and the course of trading will be affected by the news from the US. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the major European markets, but the decline may continue in the near future.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth after a decline in the previous days. Improved investor sentiment was due to both technical factors and increased speculation about stimulus measures in China and Japan. Among the statistics it is worth noting saving the unemployment rate in Australia at around 6.2% and the growth of car sales in the country by 5.5% in September, against a drop of 1.7% in August. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statement of the Bank of Japan in which it may declared about additional measures to stimulate growth in the country against the background of the risks associated with a slowdown in China.

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