15.10.2015 - Weak retail sales growth in the US has led to the fall of the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday continued to rise against the basis of weak statistics on retail sales in the United States. In September, the growth rate was only 0.1%, against an expected increase of 0.2%. This statistics have a strong influence on investor sentiment, because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the United States. This fact increases the probability of keeping interest rates of the Fed at the same level this year. Today will also be published important statistics on consumer price index (12:30 GMT), the weak growth of which have been a key reason to save the settings of monetary policy in the US unchanged in September. In addition, we should pay attention to the data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). The growth of quotations may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a strong rise yesterday and compensated the losses of the previous day, which were caused by the news of the deflation of 0.1% in September. It is worth noting that the unemployment rate in the UK unexpectedly fell to 5.4% against the previous figure and the forecast of 5.5%. As a result, quotations have reached the target level and today we can see the correction of price, after which growth may continue. The volatility will decrease, but will remain at a high level. Our medium-term outlook is still negative, but the upward movement may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the decrease of the US dollar after the release of weak statistics on retail sales in the country, which is negatively displayed on the statistics for GDP growth in the country. In addition, the risks associated with slowing growth in China will stimulate the purchases of defensive assets like the yen. The negative news were also the reduction of the volume of industrial production in Japan in August by 1.2%, which was 0.7% worse than analysts' forecasts. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the speech of the Bank of Japan's chairman Haruhiko Kuroda in which he may announce the intention to strengthen simulative measures for the country's economic growth. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current strengthening of the yen may continue in the near term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after the strong correction resumed growth and now shows a positive dynamics against the background of two important factors. Thus, the US dollar fell after weak statistics on retail sales and unemployment rate in Australia totaled 6.2%, which was better than analysts' forecasts. In addition, new vehicle sales in Australia rose 5.5% in September after falling by 1.7% in August. The potential for further growth of the Australian currency is limited and our medium-term view remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its positive trend against the background of the Australian currency rise and the fall of the US dollar. Strong influence on the mood of investors still have news from China and the prices of dairy products, which is the main export item for the country. It is worth noting that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in New Zealand rose to 55.4 in September, which is 0.3 better than in August. Tomorrow we should pay attention to data on the consumer price index in the country. We expect falling prices in the medium term, but in the nearest future growth may continue.