15.12.2014 - ​The Australian dollar has fallen to the level of 2010

The price of euro in the last trading session of the week could not overcome the level of 1.25. Positive mood of investors was associated with the weakening of the dollar and has led to the growth of quotations of the euro, which has been limited by positive data from the US. Thus, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan rose to its highest post-crisis level of 93.8, compared with an expected 89.6. The reason for the growth was the fall in oil prices. It should be noted that industrial production in the euro area in October rose by 0.1%, which is 0.1% worse than analysts' expectations. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York (13:30 GMT), industrial production in the US (14:15 GMT). We expect the euro price decline today and keep medium-term negative outlook.

The price of the British pound continues to consolidate near the level of 1.57. On the one hand the growth of quotations was supported by the weakening of the dollar, but on the other, the price on Friday was under the pressure of weak data on the construction sector, the production of which in October fell by 2.2%, compared with an expected growth of 0.8%. The index of leading economic indicators in October showed a decline of 0.3%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the balance of production orders in the UK in December (11:00 GMT). To continue the growth of the price will be needed a powerful impetus. We recommend to wait for a signal to open positions.

The Japanese yen has changed slightly today, despite the results of the elections to the lower house of the Japanese parliament, where the ruling coalition has received more than two-thirds of the votes - 325 out of 475 seats. The victory of the political party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will lead to the continuation of the program of stimulating the economy, which in turn should lead to a decline of the yen against the growth of liquidity on the market. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on the manufacturing PMI in Japan. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative, but we note the reduction potential of falling prices in the near future.

The price of the Australian dollar fell to its lowest level since 2010 on news about the growth of the country's budget deficit to 40.4 billion. The reason for the deterioration in the public finances of the country was the fall in iron ore prices and slow wage growth. Furthermore, the pressure on the price of the Australian currency have events in Sydney, where a terrorist or group of terrorists took hostages in the financial district of the city and declare about bombs in the city. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on the industry in China and the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect further price reduction in the medium term.

The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its downward movement after the price correction last week. Investors continue to monitor the prices for dairy products, which is a key export commodity and continues to become cheaper. Tomorrow will be published statistics on the industry in China, which may affect the price dynamics of the New Zealand dollar. The central event of the week will be publication of data on GDP growth in the country on Wednesday night. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

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