16.01.2015 - ​The decision of the Swiss National Bank resulted in the fall of the euro

The price of euro fell sharply yesterday after the Swiss National Bank's decision on refusal from restrictions to lower bottom limit of the price of the Swiss franc, which has led to sales of euro. Eurozone's trade surplus in November fell to 20.0 billion compared with an expected 21.3 billion. Weak data on the US labor market, where the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 316 thousand that is 17 thousand worse than the forecast, supported the euro. The Producer Price Index in the US fell by 0.3% in December, in line with expectations. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on the index of consumer prices in December in the euro area (10:00 GMT) and the USA (13:30 GMT), industrial production (14:15 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14: 55 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

The price of the British pound fell yesterday amid falling euro, after the removal of restrictions on the minimum exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the euro. It is worth noting that today will not be published important macroeconomic data on the UK economy, and the course of trading will be under the influence of the news from the US and the Eurozone. On Monday, the activity of traders will also be reduced due to the holiday in the US. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the British pound, which is caused by the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in the country and the fall of the euro.

The Japanese yen showed gains on the unexpected decision of the Swiss central bank, which has resulted in increased demand for the Swiss franc and drop in prices of the euro. It is worth noting that the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations of new measures to stimulate economic growth in Japan, lead to further decline of the yen, but at the moment quotations of the currency strengthened due to the increased demand caused by the interest in defensive assets. Investors fear the fall of the US stock market, the negative impact of low oil prices and the effects of the political crisis in Greece. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but admit the possibility of strengthening it in the near future.

The price of the Australian dollar yesterday showed strong growth after the publication of positive statistics on the labor market in the country where the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 6.1%. At the same time, the number of employed people increased by 37.4 thousand against the expected growth of only 5.3 thousand. Next week is expected the increase of volatility in connection with the publication of data on the Chinese economy. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The New Zealand dollar rose sharply yesterday on positive news from Australia, but was unable to continue to grow. The price will probably continue to consolidate around current levels or will begin to decline. For the continued growth is needed a powerful impetus. Today, the course of trading will depend on data from the United States. Next week is expected to be published a large block of statistics on the economy of New Zealand and China. We expect price decline in the medium term.

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