16.02.2015 - The US dollar weakened slightly
The price of euro on Friday could not continue to grow despite some news that contributed to this. Thus, GDP growth in Germany totaled 0.7% in Q4 2014 and 0.3% in the euro area. Analysts predicted rate increase by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. At the same time statistics on consumer confidence in the US disappointed investors and weakened the dollar. Thus, the figure fell to 93.6, compared with an expected 98.2. Today in the United States celebrate Presidents' Day. The course of trading may be affected by the data on the trade balance of the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) and the report of the Central Bank of Germany (11:00 GMT). The focus of investors remains on the Greek crisis and the confrontation in Ukraine. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect a decline of the euro in the coming weeks.
The price of the British pound against the US dollar rose on the background of deterioration in the index of consumer confidence in the United States. Today have been published the data on the growth of house prices in the UK by 2.1% in February, compared to 1.4% in January. Today, investors' activity will be minimal, but the increase in volatility is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday against the publication of a large block of statistics on inflation and the labor market in the country. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook on the British pound, but expect further growth in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the publication of data on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of the last year by 0.6%, which is 0.3% worse than the forecast, but better than a 0.5% decline in the previous period. Industrial production in the country in December showed an increase of 0.8% against the expected 1.0%. Analysts continue to monitor the situation around the Greek debt crisis and the truce in Ukraine. We expect the resumption of the downward movement of the price of the yen amid expectations of earlier increases in interest rates and the Fed maintain a medium-term negative view.
The price of the Australian dollar showed a slight increase on the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to the increase in commodity prices. Statistics which was published today turned out controversial. So, on the one hand new car sales in Australia fell by 1.5% in January, but the amount of foreign direct investment in China rose by 29.4% in January. Tomorrow, we expect an increase in volatility, after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We forecast a drop in prices after the publication and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise against the weakening US currency and in relation to the growth of commodities. Positive data on the growth of investment in China also improved investor sentiment. At the moment, the quotes are consolidated around important level of 0.7500, to overcome which will be needed a substantial boost. We expect price decline in the medium term, but note the possibility of changing the negative trend in the near future.