16.02.2016 - Negotiations in Doha will lead to increased volatility
The price of gold continued to decline and reached the psychologically important mark of 1200 dollars per troy ounce after growth in previous weeks amid growing demand for defensive assets. In addition, the recent positive statistics on retail sales in the US improved analysts' expectations on the country's economy, which increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. Demand in China has decreased in connection with the completion of the holiday period in the country. Given the improvement in investor sentiment, the demand for defensive assets falls, which together with the strengthening of the dollar will lead to a continuation of negative dynamics with objectives of 1100 and 1050 dollars per troy ounce. Despite the possibility of a rebound in the near future, we keep a medium-term negative outlook on the gold price.
The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil continues to rise amid speculations about possible coordinated action by major oil producers in the world. The meeting which at will discuss the issue will be held today in the capital of Qatar - Doha. The excess of oil supply that grows after the lifting of sanctions against Iran continues to put pressure on the price. We do not expect reaching the consensus in today's talks and maintain the medium-term negative outlook. Volatility will be increased.