16.02.2016 - The US dollar continues to rise
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid positive effect in the US statistics on retail sales, which rose by 0.2% in January. This fact, together with the resumption of speculation about a possible revision of the quantitative easing program settings will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the euro. Yesterday the head of the ECB confirmed the intention to take the necessary measures at the next meeting of the ECB in March. Today, on the dynamics of trading will influence the data on the index of business confidence in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York (13:30 GMT). We expect continuation of falling prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook due to the expectation of a new stimulus by the ECB.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is falling against the strengthening of the US dollar and the downward impact of the euro decline. Today, a large block of macroeconomic data on inflation in January (09:30 GMT) will be published in the UK. Rising inflation increases the likelihood of higher interest rates of the Bank of England, but in the medium term quotes of the British pound will be under the pressure from speculation about the country's possible exit from the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declined against the US dollar amid falling demand for defensive assets, as well as statements by the Prime Minister to take the necessary actions on the currency market if necessary. According to him, the recent rise of the yen was excessive. It is also worth mentioning the publication of weak statistics on the country's GDP, which fell by 0.4% in the 4th quarter and the country's industry, which decreased by 1.7%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the volume of domestic orders for engineering products. Strong influence on the dynamics of trading will have the dynamics of the global stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a further fall in price of the yen in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after recent gains, caused by higher oil prices. It is worth noting that today were published the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes of the meeting in which was pointed the weakness of growth in China and a decline in investment in the mining sector. In addition, according to protocols, low inflation gives room for further monetary easing. On the other hand, the unemployment forecast in the country has been improved. Tomorrow will be published statistics on the index of leading economic indicators. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp decline against the publication of weak statistics on inflation expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for 2 years, which declined to 1.6%, which is 0.3% less than the previous forecast. This fact reinforces the confidence in the further reduction of the interest rates of the central bank of the country. In addition, retail sales in the country grew by 1.2% in the 4th quarter, which is 0.2% worse than the forecast. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and are waiting for confirmation of the sell signal.