16.04.2015 - Oil continued to rise against the background of weaker growth of inventories in the US

The price of gold rose amid the weakening of the US dollar after the publication of weak statistics on industrial production, which fell in the first quarter in the US by 1.0%, marking the first decline since 2009. Deterioration in the oil and gas sector was the main reason for the decline. The main factor that continues to affect the price of gold remains speculation on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates, which will reduce the price of gold. At the same time, demand for gold on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose, but slowing growth in China remains a negative factor for the further growth of quotations. In case of correction on the stock markets, the demand for the metal may rise. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold, but for the opening positions we need new signals.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise against the background of weak growth in US oil inventories, which increased by 1.3 million barrels, against the forecast of 3.6 million barrels of oil. At the same time, the volume of production in OPEC countries rose to its highest level in 2 years 31.02 million barrels. Investors continue to monitor the situation with the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, which can lead to easing of sanctions against the Islamic Republic and lead to the increased supply of Iranian oil to the market more than 2 times. It is worth noting that some of Iran's oil reserves are already stored in tankers and can quickly be sent to consumers. Despite the current growth of oil quotations, we expect a positive trend change and recommend to wait for a signal for opening short positions, our medium-term forecast for oil also remains negative with the potential of fall to $ 40 per barrel.

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