16.04.2015 - The labor market situation in Australia has improved
The price of euro showed growth against the background of the fall of the US dollar after the publication of statistics on industrial production in the US, which in March fell by 0.6%, compared with an expected drop of 0.3%. At the same time, for the first quarter of this year, industrial production fell by 1.0%, which was the first decline since 2009. The reason for the deterioration of the indicator has been the decline in oil and gas rigs drilling, as well as reduced production in the manufacturing sector by 1.2%. The head of the ECB said yesterday about the effectiveness of quantitative easing program and noted the intention of the ECB not to end the program prematurely. Today, the course of trading will be affected the data on the labor and housing market in the US (12:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound continued to rise on the weakening of the US dollar after the release of weak statistics on industrial production in the country. In addition, statistics on an index of leading economic indicators for February, which rose to 0.6%, which is 0.4% better than the previous indicators also supported the British currency. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the statistics from the US and the dynamics of the US dollar. Investor activity will be constrained by the expectation of tomorrow's publication on the labor market in the UK, which can traditionally show strong results. We maintain our negative medium term view on the British pound, but we can see growth in the coming days.
The Japanese yen continues to gradually strengthen amid the weakening of the US dollar caused by the fall in industrial production in the US by 1.0% in the first quarter. It is worth noting that earlier policy in Japan declared unreasonably low rate of the Japanese currency. Tomorrow the course of trading will affect the data on consumer confidence index in Japan, and today is expected the increase of volatility in connection with the publication of important data on the housing market and the labor market in the United States. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expectations of its tightening in the United States.
The price of the Australian dollar has shown a steady growth in the weakening of the US dollar, but the main driver for the increase was the news on the labor market in a country where the number of employees increased by 37,7 thousand, vs. expected 14,9 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 % in March, against the expected growth of 6.3%. Despite this, the low prices of iron ore and other commodities continue to put pressure on the quotes of the national currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect the resumption of the downward movement after the weakening of the current upward momentum.
Price of the New Zealand dollar rose against the background of positive statistics on the labor market in Australia and the weakening US dollar. It is worth noting that this positive background could neutralize the weak data on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the industry in New Zealand, which declined to 54.5. In the near future quotations may show a slight increase, but more likely is the resumption of the downward movement of prices in the near future.