16.06.2015 - Industrial production in the US fell by 0.2%
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate before the Fed statement on monetary policy, which will be held tomorrow and is likely to indicate a hawkish attitude of the Federal Open Market Committee and will lead to the fall of the euro. The focus of investors is on the Greek crisis, where until June 19 should reach a consensus or declare a default of Greece. ECB President Mario Draghi said yesterday that the Eurozone economy is recovering at a moderate pace and that inflation will accelerate later this year. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on the index of business sentiment in Germany and the euro area, the level of employment in the euro area (09:00 GMT), as well as statistics on the housing market in the US (12:30 GMT), which is likely to support the dollar. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to rise against the background of a weaker dollar after yesterday's publication of weak statistics on industrial production in the US, which fell by 0.2% in May against the forecast of growth of 0.2%. In addition, the Bank of England noted on the expected increase in inflation, which increases the likelihood of raising interest rates by the Bank of England and support the quotes of the British pound. Today will be published important statistics on inflation (08:30 GMT). We expect a fall in the British pound in the medium term, but we can see its growth today and tomorrow.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen weakened after the head of the Bank of Japan said that his speech last week, which has led to the strong growth of the yen did not mean to evaluate the exchange rate of the yen and its direction of movement. At the same time, the growth of the yen was supported by a weaker US dollar. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the trade balance of Japan, which traditionally leads to a strong short-term movements. Investors expect the US Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy tomorrow, which will lead to increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues the sideways movement after stabilizing near the levels 0,77-0,78. Today have been published the minutes of the previous meeting of the RBA in which was noted the readiness of the controller to further reduce interest rates, but it will monitor the economic data for assessing the need for further easing of monetary policy. Given the pressure of low commodity prices and loose monetary policy of the RBA, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the stabilization near the important level of about 0.70 indicates low volatility. On the one hand, the recent decline in interest rates and low prices for dairy products put pressure on quotations of the national currency of New Zealand, but on the other hand the potential for further reduction has dropped. Tonight (21:45 GMT), will be published statistics on balance of payments, which will increase volatility. We expect a drop in prices in the medium term.