16.07.2015 - The Greek parliament approved austerity measures
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows a negative trend despite the successful vote in Greece, where the country's parliament approved the laws necessary for the third package of financial aid from the lenders. In connection with a reduction in the risks surrounding the Greek issue, investors have switched attention to the Fed's monetary policy. Thus, yesterday the head of the US regulator pointed on the likely increase in interest rates this year. In addition, the Fed is expected the acceleration of the economic growth, reduction unemployment and the continued growth of wages. At the same time, industrial production in the US rose in June by 0.3% against the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Today, the focus of investors will be on the data on the trade balance and consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), as well as the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). In addition, special attention should be paid to the speech of the heads of the ECB (12:30 GMT) and the Fed (14:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized after the strong growth, which was caused by the statement of the Bank of England about the possibility of rising interest rates by the regulator. The strengthening of the US dollar has led to a price correction, but quotes of the British currency regained positions. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of leading economic indicators in the United Kingdom (13:30 GMT) and the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (18:00 GMT), which can support the growth of the British currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but at the moment there is a high probability of further upward movement of prices.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued its decline against the background of a stronger US dollar and falling demand for defensive assets in connection with the successful vote on the austerity measures in the Greek parliament. The attention of investors in the coming months will shift to monetary policy the Fed, the tightening of which is likely to lead to a further decline of the Japanese currency. According to our estimates, the euro will continue to fall in price in the medium term and its growth is possible only within the correction.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp decline amid the unexpected decision of the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates by 0.25% to 0.50%. It is worth noting that the move was prompted by the need to maintain economic growth in conditions of low export commodity prices. Economies of Canada, Australia and New Zealand depend on the sale of raw materials and the move of the Canadian regulator will encourage the RBA to cut interest rates any time soon. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of leading economic indicators in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp decline after the decision of the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 0.25%. It is worth noting that experts expect the easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to support economic growth in the country. Also negative factor was the weak results of trading on GlobalDairy Trade. It should be noted that dairy products are the main export product of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the correction of prices in the near future.