16.08.2016 - Statistics on inflation in the US will lead to an increase in volatility
American stock indexes yesterday showed growth against the background of positive dynamics of oil, which is caused by possible consensus between countries of OPEC and other major oil producers on the freezing of production volumes. Today, the volatility in the US will be increased in connection with the publication of important data on the consumer price index (12:30 GMT) and industrial production (13:15 GMT). The inflation data is critical to the Fed's decision on the timing of interest rate increase. In addition, the minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed on monetary policy will be published tomorrow. According to our estimates, the potential for further growth is low and we expect the beginning of a decline in the near future.
European stocks mainly showed growth during yesterday's trading session. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect inflation data in the UK (08:30 GMT). CPI growth will limit the ability of the Bank of England for monetary easing. We also pay attention to the data on the index of economic sentiment and the trade balance of the euro area (09:00 GMT). Strong influence on the course of trading will continue to provide the dynamics of US indexes and commodity futures. Our medium-term outlook for major markets in Europe remains negative due to the influence of the British exit from the EU.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally showed a negative dynamics. Strengthening of the yen negatively displayed on the shares of export-oriented companies whose revenue continues to decline. On the other hand, the companies focused on the domestic market are affected by the weak level of personal expenses. The Chinese market is supported by expectations of stimulus measures from the government due to the slowdown in the industry and the economy as a whole. On Thursday in Australia will be published important data on the labor market of the country. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the region.