16.08.2016 - The pound fell to the lowest levels in 31 years

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight increase against the dollar amid weak statistics on retail sales in the United States that was published on Friday. It is worth noting that investors are reluctant to accumulate positions ahead of today's publication of the US inflation statistics (12:30 GMT), the growth of which will be the basis for a faster increase of the Fed's interest rates, which in turn will lead to a decline in the euro against the dollar. Also today, we should pay attention to the statistics on the volume of industrial production in the United States for July (13:15 GMT) and the data on the business confidence index of in the euro area (09:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline and is near the minimum level in 31 years. The reason for the decline remains negative expectations for the economic growth of the country after at the referendum supported the idea of the country's exit from the EU. Today, it is worth paying attention to the inflation in the country (08:30 GMT) which will restrain the Bank of England from a stronger easing of monetary policy. Traders will also wait the publication of important statistics on the labor market tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the weakening US dollar. Currently quotes are around the important levels and after the recent significant strengthening of the yen, we can see its weakening. Moreover, given the previous statements of the Japanese authorities, we do not exclude the gain of speculation regarding the use of foreign exchange intervention in Japan, to deal with a strong currency. We expect the beginning of a correction in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook on the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed increased volatility on the background of the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in which was noted uncertainty with respect to inflation prospects. Rising oil prices previously supported the Australian currency. Tomorrow will be released the news on the index of leading economic indicators. According to our estimates, the potential for further growth of the Australian currency is low and we expect the price decline in the medium term.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline against the weakening US dollar. Investors are waiting for publication of important reports on employment and the Producer Price Index (22:45 GMT), which will lead to an increase in volatility. According to our estimates, quotes of the New Zealand dollar will continue to decline against the background of the recent reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the likely continuation of the course on the easing of monetary policy in the country, as well as in connection with the expected strengthening of the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, despite the possible continuation of growth in the near future.

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