16.09.2015 - Data on US inflation will increase the volatility today
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose slightly today after declining yesterday. Data from the US was weaker than analysts had forecasted. Thus, the retail sales rose in August by 0.2%, which is 0.1% less than the forecast, industrial production fell by 0.4% after rising by 0.9% in the previous month. Today, the strong influence on the course of trading will have data on inflation (12:30 GMT), the growth of which is one of the main factors that affect the decision regarding the Fed raising interest rates. Tomorrow will be published on the Fed's decision on interest rates, which will lead to a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the publication of weak statistics on inflation in the UK. So, the rate remained unchanged in August compared with the same period last year, but the core rate was 1.0%, in line with market expectations, but it was by 0.2% less than in June. This fact reduces the likelihood of earlier increases in interest rates of the Bank of England. Today, volatility is increased due to release of a report on the labor market in the United Kingdom (08:30 GMT). We expect falling prices in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after a slight strengthening returned to earlier levels. Investors are in no hurry with active movements before tomorrow's decision on the monetary policy of the Fed. In addition, tomorrow is worth paying attention to statistics on the trade balance of the country, which has traditionally had a strong influence on the course of trading, as well as the speech of the Bank of Japan's chairman Haruhiko Kuroda. We expect a fall in the price of the yen against the US dollar in the medium term due to the difference in monetary policy.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after a slight decline yesterday, regained lost positions. The index of leading economic indicators fell in July by 0.3%, against a 0.1% rise in the previous month. Tomorrow will be released of the quarterly bulletin of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which probably will not have a strong influence on the course of trading in connection with the expected decision by the US regulator on interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect renewal of falling prices in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose slightly today after the release of data on the balance of payments of New Zealand. Thus, the deficit totaled 1.22 billion against 1.40 billion expected. The price movement will be constrained by the expectation of the release of statistics on the GDP of New Zealand (22:45 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the resumption of the fall in the coming days.