16.09.2016 - Data on inflation in the US will lead to a strong dollar movements
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed little change despite the publication of weak statistics in the United States that led to the weakening of the dollar. Thus, retail sales in the US decreased by 0.3%, which is 0.2% worse than the forecast. In addition, the volume of industrial production in the world's largest economy fell by 0.4%, against an expected decline by 0.2% and growth by 0.6% in the previous month. Today in the euro area will not be published important statistics and the main attention will be focused on the statistics of the consumer price index in the US (12:30 GMT), the growth of which will lead to an increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and volatility will be increased in the coming days.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected within the local downtrend, which was caused by the publication of weak statistics in the United States. Also yesterday, the Bank of England published a decision on monetary policy, according to which the key interest rate has remained at 0.25%, and the volume of the quantitative easing program 425 billion pounds. Despite the stronger statistics in the country, than expected after a referendum on the country's exit from the EU, the Bank of England does not exclude the possibility of further interest rate cuts. Today, attention will be focused on news from the US. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to rise in response to falling US dollar, and also against the background of the conservation of uncertainty about the growth prospects for the stock and commodity markets. On Monday, in Japan is a day off. In addition, investors are waiting for the statements of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve on monetary policy on Wednesday, which will lead to a significant increase in volatility. Demand for the yen may rise in case of a fall on the stock markets, the probability of which is increased. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, and the potential of strengthening is low.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed an increase due to the negative statistics in the US that weakened the American dollar. In addition, investors continue to evaluate the data on the unemployment rate in the country, which fell by 0.1% in August to 5.6%. Traders also continue to monitor the dynamics of commodity markets, which traditionally have a strong impact on the dynamics of trading. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current correction may continue.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its correction after the US was released the weak data on retail sales. The main influence on the course of trading today will have news on inflation in US. It is worth noting that despite the lower growth rate of the economy of New Zealand, its pace remains high. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the preservation of the probability of further reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and their increase in the United States.