16,09,2016 - Libya and Nigeria can increase the volume of oil supplies

The price of gold showed a drop on a background of decline and interest in risky assets after the US published weak data on retail sales in the country, which led to a decrease in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year and increase on the stock markets. Thus the retail sales were down 0.3% against the expected decrease of 0.1% in August. At the same time, industrial production fell by 0.4% against the forecast of decline by 0.2% in August. Today, we are forecasting a rise in volatility after will be published the report on the consumer price index in the US (12:30 GMT). In the case of rising inflation, the probability of the Fed tightening US monetary policy this year will grow, which is negative for gold. Our medium-term outlook remains positive on the background of an expected decline on the stock markets.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued to fall against the backdrop of a skeptical assessment of a possible consensus between the major oil producers at a conference in Algiers, which will be held September 26-28. In addition, Libya and Nigeria in the near future may increase the volume of sales of oil by 800 thousand barrels per day that together with an increase in the supply of OPEC and Russia will strengthen the imbalance of supply and demand on the market. The impact on the dynamics of trading in the coming weeks will also be influenced by the increased volatility of the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a further fall to 35-36 dollars per barrel.

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