16.10.2015 - Statistics on inflation has led to an increase of the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed a sharp decline after the publication of statistics on core consumer price inflation in the US, which grew by 0.2% in September against 0.1% in August. News on reducing the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 255 million, which is the lowest figure since 1973 also has led to the fall of the euro. It should be noted that the representative of the European Central Bank Ewald Nowotny said that inflation in the euro area is far from the target levels and the recent decline in the consumer price index indicates the need for additional tools to support inflation, which will be negatively displayed on the value of the euro. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance and consumer price index of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the volume of industrial production in the US (13:15 GMT) and the index of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed increased of volatility due to the strengthening of the US dollar, but the statistics on inflation in the United States, which increases the chance of the Fed raising interest rates this year could not offset the positive statistics on the labor market, where unemployment fell to 5.4%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news from the US. Before the weekend, we did not expect to see a build-up of positions in the British pound. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a decline after the publication of statistics on the core consumer price index in the US, which grew by 0.2% in September, which increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates. At the same time, many analysts expect to strengthen the support measures for inflation and the economy in Japan, which will also have a negative impact on the Japanese yen. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains pessimistic.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as due to lack of power for continued growth despite the publication of strong statistics on the labor market in Australia, where the unemployment rate remained at 6.2%, which is 0.1% less than the forecast. Strong influence on the mood of investors will continue to have news from China and the trend in prices for iron ore and other exports. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current consolidation is likely to continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar fell slightly in connection with the publication of statistics on the index of consumer prices in New Zealand, which fell to 0.3% in Q3, against 0.4% in the previous period. It is worth noting that analysts had expected the index to fall to 0.2%. On Monday, a strong influence on the course of trading will have data on industrial production and GDP in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.