The price of gold on the first trading day of the week shows a positive dynamics against the background of the increased demand for defensive assets, due to the terrorist attacks in Paris and weak statistics on GDP growth in Japan, which, according to preliminary data for the third quarter decreased by 0.2%, which is twice worse than the forecasts. In addition, the demand for gold is supported by increased consumption for jewelry in India and China due to the holiday season. Rising volatility is forecasted tomorrow after the publication of data on inflation in the US, which will be key for decision on the Fed's monetary policy. We expect continued growth today, but for the medium-term forecast we need additional signals.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to fall against the backdrop of saving the oversupply of oil on the market and rising inventories in the United States. In addition, the International Energy Agency published the forecast according to which the growth in oil consumption next year is possible by 1.2 million barrels against an increase of 1.8 million barrels this year. As a result, the quotations have reached the target levels of 42 dollars per barrel, and may continue to move downwards to $ 40 per barrel. Fall of Japan's GDP by 0.2% in the third quarter was also negative for oil. We recommend holding short positions and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.