16.11.2015 - The terrorist attacks in Paris have led to a weakening of the euro
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro started this trading week with decline in connection with the terrorist attacks in Paris over the weekend, whose influence will be limited. It should be noted that the statistics that was published on Friday turned out to be controversial. Thus, the euro area GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.3%, which is 0.1% worse than forecast, while retail sales in the US grew by only 0.1% in October against the forecast of 0.3%. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the consumer price index in the euro area (10:00 GMT), after the publication of which, Mario Draghi will speak (10:15 GMT). In the United States we should pay attention to data on manufacturing PMI in New York City (13:30 GMT). Investors now do not rush before the publication of statistics on inflation in the US tomorrow, which will have a key influence on the decision of the Fed's monetary policy. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized above 1.52 and continues to consolidate waiting for new signals. Growth of price is constrained by the expectation of a stronger US dollar and the pressure of weak euro. Earlier, the fall of the British currency was due to a decrease in forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the country. Tomorrow will be released a report on inflation, which may lead to a strong price movement. We expect weak activity of investors today. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar despite the publication of weak statistics for GDP growth in Japan, which in the third quarter, according to preliminary data fell by 0.2%, compared with an expected decline of 0.1%. The main reasons for the fall were negative trends in the economy of China and the weakening global demand for Japanese goods. At the same time, domestic demand, which is about 60% of the country's GDP grew by 0.5%, and analysts predict GDP growth in the 4th quarter. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to fall today after the publication of statistics on the reduction of car sales on the domestic market by 3.6% against the same indicator growth of 5.6% in September. Tomorrow will be published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but their impact will be limited. Low commodity prices continue to be the main factor that puts pressure on the Australian currency, but this factor is partly offset by an improvement in the labor market of the country. We expect the fall of the Australian dollar in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate above the level of 0.65, and the amplitude of price fluctuations is reduced, which gives reason to expect a strong price movement after the consolidation. Statistics on the growth of retail sales in New Zealand 1.6% in the third quarter against 0.1% in the second quarter failed to significantly affect the mood of investors. We recommend holding short positions and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.