16.12.2014 - Industry in China began to slow down
US stock indexes yesterday continued to fall against the background of conflicting statistics and expectations of the Fed decision on monetary policy on Wednesday. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York fell to -3.6, compared with an expected 12.1. At the same time, the growth of industrial production in the US in November rose by 1.3%, which is 0.5% better than the forecast of analysts. Experts predict the possibility of refusal of Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at current levels for "considerable time" and the transition to a smooth increase. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the US construction sector (13:30 GMT). The fall may continue due to the negative statistics on the industry in China. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the US indexes.
European stock markets yesterday showed a decline for the sixth consecutive session. The reason for the deterioration in investor sentiment was the news from China, where the People's Bank of China cut its growth forecast for the country's economy to 7.1% in 2015, compared to 7.4% this year. The fall of oil continues to put pressure on the price of companies in the sector. The collapse of the Russian ruble also worsened the expectations of traders on the improvement of the situation on the European stock markets. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on manufacturing and service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the index of business confidence in Germany and the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). The negative factor remains the statistics on the industry in China. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for European indexes.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region show different trends. The reason for the fall of the index of Japan remains the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar and the negative external background. Today was published statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Japan, which rose by 0.1 to 52.1 in December, but it turned out to be 0.1 worse than the forecast. The same index if China, which is calculated by HSBC fell by 0.5 to 49.5. It is worth noting that the value, lower than 50.0, indicates a slowing in the sector. Tomorrow is worth paying attention to the data on the trade balance of Japan and the index of leading economic indicators in the Australia. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the region.