16.12.2015 - Today, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time since 2006
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected down yesterday in connection with the publication of the report on inflation in the US in November, as well as on the background of fixing long positions before today's Fed decision on interest rates (19:00 GMT), which according to our forecasts will be raised. The main attention will be paid to the Fed rhetoric regarding the future plans to tighten monetary policy. Perhaps the Fed indicated that the situation on the labor and housing markets improved and further steps of the regulator will depend on the economic situation of the country. It should be noted that the consumer price index in the US remained unchanged in November. The impact on the dynamics of trading will also have the housing data (13:30 GMT) and the volume of industrial production in the US (14:15 GMT). We expect a strong move today and maintain the medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the dollar on the background of technical factors and the strengthening of the US currency before today's Fed statement on monetary policy. Inflation in the UK in November rose by 0.1%, in line with expectations and was better than the previous decline of 0.1%. Today will be published important statistics on the labor market in the country (9:30 GMT), but the basic movement is expected in the evening. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of Japanese yen declines against the strengthening of the US dollar before the Fed's statement tonight (19:00 GMT). It is worth noting that today was published the positive statistics on Japan's manufacturing PMI, which was 52.5. The improvement in the manufacturing sector was due to the growth of export orders, and this fact, according to our estimates will support the growth of GDP in the last quarter of this year. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the trade balance of Japan. We expect strong price movements tonight and maintain the medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows a minor correction after yesterday's fall of prices caused by the strengthening of the dollar, which could neutralize the effect of the correction of rising oil prices. The main focus today will be directed to the news from the United States, and tomorrow will be published quarterly newsletter of the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to our forecasts, the Australian dollar will continue to fall in the medium term, despite the improvement in the growth prospects of the Australian economy and reduction of dependence from the mining sector.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar failed to extend gains yesterday and started to correct downwards against the strengthening US dollar. It is worth noting that the country's balance of payments deficit totaled 4.75 billion in the 3rd quarter, better than the forecast that 4.85 billion, but the much better 1.17 billion for the second quarter. Tonight (21:45 GMT) will be released a report on the growth of GDP in Q3, which might support the New Zealand dollar, but the main impact on the dynamics of prices in the near future will have today's statement of the Fed. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar.